The Brexit Chronicles

Here's What You Could Have Won...

Published on November 11th, 2018

Apart from the usual speculation, all is relatively quiet as far is Brexit news is concerned; I don't regard former transport minister Jo Johnson's resignation as being of any great significance. So during the final peace before all hell breaks loose, and with little to write about I thought I'd indulge in some counterfactual speculation: How might events have transpired if the UK had voted Remain? Let's travel to an alternate dimension and find out...

NewsReportOnline July 13 2018.

London: Trenton Ayers reflects on his three years in England.

In my time in London I've grown to understand more about the English and made some good friends here, but I'll be glad to get back to New York. It's not that I don't like London, it's more a case of getting out while the going's good as the locals say; that recent incident I had in the Underground (subway) station, though a relatively minor one, made me stop and think about where I was going with my life. I decided it was time to go home, even if the United States is a nervous place right now with President Clinton at loggerheads with Russia, China, and North Korea over a growing number of issues.

Despite the President's new, brash approach to foreign affairs there's a widespread feeling on both sides of the Atlantic that both the US and UK dodged bullets which could have derailed both nations; the British narrowly voting 53-47% to stay in the European Union, followed months later by President Hillary Clinton's narrow, still disputed victory over Donald Trump. No one can say for sure how much of an effect the Britishers' decision might have had in influencing America's choice of a 'sane' candidate, but the thought of the UK stepping back from the precipice had enough of a resonance with the American voters to make a small, but significant difference.

Though the British chose to remain in the Union two years ago and so avoided the uncertainty of a complex break-up, life since that momentous result has been anything but dull or plain sailing; Prime Minister George Osborne faces a number of challenges both within his nation and from the bloc.

Though Osbourne's predecessor David Cameron carried the referendum, his reputation was so battered by that and the 'Pig Gate' scandal he had no choice but to announce he was going to resign, doing so once his successor had been chosen. Once installed in 10 Downing Street, the new Prime Minister soon found out that his European problems were anything but over. The immediate demands for a recount of the votes and the wave of isolated, low level riots passed quickly, but despite or because of the closeness of the result, the Euroskeptic faction in the Conservative party regarded their position as having been cemented. They have made it clear that although they accepted the referendum's outcome for now, they also saw it as 'a line in the sand being drawn', preventing any further UK integration into the EU. So the governing Tory Party remains divided; even the creation of a Ministry of European Affairs headed by arch-Brexiter Boris Johnson to champion Britain's arguments in the EU did little to assuage Osbourne's rightist critics, especially when, after the latest in a series of diplomatic gaffes, Johnson was forced to resign his post.

Brussels as well, in the wake of the result, has taken the opportunity to press for greater British participation in the European project; a draft 'Next Generation Convergence' treaty discussion document is circulating among EU governments which would see the UK lose most of its existing budget rebates and exemptions from EU law. Though London has vehemently protested any further extension of EU control over domestic affairs, as usual it finds itself isolated and outvoted in an organisation becoming increasingly interventionist, corporatist, but also increasingly more right wing: This may well become even more so after the European elections to be held in May next year. Perhaps the first test of the government's mettle will be how it responds to the Commission's insistence the UK participates in the recently announced EU-wide biometric identity database, planned to begin in 2022. Many Tory backbenchers are incensed at what they see as Brussels attempting to 'bounce' the UK into the embarrassing readoption an identity card program a previous Conservative government scrapped in 2010, as well as seeing it as the EU literally 'taking liberties'. Also they object to the nascent pan-european citizenship such a scheme implies, along with freedom of movement and residency issues; just the possibility of European citizens gaining unconditional access to social welfare benefits in any member state of their choice as a result of such a measure has the parliamentarians hot under the collar. The immigration 'Deal' promised to David Cameron by Brussels at the height of the referendum campaign seems but a fading memory now.