The Brexit Chronicles

...And then there was one.

Published on August 2nd, 2019. 11.30

Is Boris Johnson fated to become the briefest serving Prime Minister of modern times? Might his term of office be the most abbreviated ever? (Currently the record is held by George Canning, whose sole term lasted 119 days from 12 April 1827 until his death on 8 August 1827.) Following the result of the Brecon and Radnor by-election - which as expected, the Liberal Democrats won from the Tories - Bojo's parliamentary majority has now decreased to just one.

Minority governments can stagger on despite everything, the most obvious example being the 1974-79 Labour administration. But for Johnson his immediate concern is to hold it all together for the ten weeks from September the 3rd when Parliament reconvenes to Brexit Day on October the 31st. In fact if he can survive until the end of September without having his hands tied by a 'No No-Deal' bill rushed through the Commons, or succumbing to a Vote of No Confidence, that would be an achievement in itself. Beyond that, in order not to assume Canning's unwanted mantle, Boris' target date 119 days from July the 24th when he entered Downing Street would be Wednesday, November 20th.

I doubt if Bojo would call a general election if he could avoid it: The memories of Theresa May's disastrous 2017 miscalculation will be uppermost in his mind, especially since the likely result might be a pro-Remain coalition with all the problems that entails, but he could yet be forced into a do-or-die gamble; to ask for a prorogation of Parliament until September's end, before engineering a further de-facto suspension with an election. If he timed it right the new government wouldn't assume office until early November, by which time Brexit should have taken place. Yes, it's a crazy strategy, but we live in mad times...